Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)

Guy BensonVerified account ‏@guypbenson

NH Journal poll: Trump slightly ahead, Ayotte up two points.

Poll: Ayotte Leads in Final Stretch, as Hassan Faces Headwinds from Clinton Support

IT's crumbling all over...

MonmouthPoll ‏@MonmouthPoll 36m36 minutes ago
BREAKING: Indiana Senate Now Tied
#INSen
Bayh 45 (48 mid-Oct / 48 Aug)
Young 45 (42 / 41)

Pres
DJT 50
HRC 39

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_103116/ …

Even Hills knows...

The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing

We’ve written about this before, but I wanted to call your attention to it again because the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split keeps widening in our forecast. While there’s an outside chance that such a split could benefit Clinton if she wins the exact set of states that form her “firewall,” it’s far more likely to benefit Donald Trump, according to our forecast. Thus, as of early Monday evening, our polls-only model gave Hillary Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning the popular vote but just a 75 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. There’s roughly a 10 percent chance of Trump’s winning the White House while losing the popular vote, in other words.

LooseGoose wrote:The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing

We’ve written about this before, but I wanted to call your attention to it again because the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split keeps widening in our forecast. While there’s an outside chance that such a split could benefit Clinton if she wins the exact set of states that form her “firewall,” it’s far more likely to benefit Donald Trump, according to our forecast. Thus, as of early Monday evening, our polls-only model gave Hillary Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning the popular vote but just a 75 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. There’s roughly a 10 percent chance of Trump’s winning the White House while losing the popular vote, in other words.

It's good news for Trump that he only has a 15% chance of winning the popular vote, and only a 25% chance of winning the election?

Trump needs to flip MI or WI and NH in addition to winning CO, FL, NC, .

This reminds me of Romney flipping Ohio stories in '12 where he was trailing by less than 4 points.
If all those folks n Clinton campaign offices run a good get out the vote operation in the next 5 days Clinton will win.

What's worse than the head of the FBI talkng about new emaiils being found or US Senators saying they will block SCOTUS nominees if Clinton is elected? An Electoral tie where even more backroom agreemants can be hatched.

4 New @CNN Battleground Polls:

AZ
Clinton 44
Trump 49

FL
Clinton 49
Trump 47

NV
Clinton 43
Trump 49

PA
Clinton 48
Trump 44

GRR Spartan wrote:What's worse than the head of the FBI talkng about new emaiils being found or US Senators saying they will block SCOTUS nominees if Clinton is elected? An Electoral tie where even more backroom agreemants can be hatched.

You do know the SCOTUS isn't fixed at 9 justices? There were 6 for quite some time. So it's not the end of the world and there is no requirement for the Senate to approve any nominee.

Based on that historical fact, I think it's worse that a major party candidate is facing a felony indictment.

LooseGoose wrote:

GRR Spartan wrote:What's worse than the head of the FBI talkng about new emaiils being found or US Senators saying they will block SCOTUS nominees if Clinton is elected? An Electoral tie where even more backroom agreemants can be hatched.

You do know the SCOTUS isn't fixed at 9 justices? There were 6 for quite some time. So it's not the end of the world and there is no requirement for the Senate to approve any nominee.

Based on that historical fact, I think it's worse that a major party candidate is facing a felony indictment.

That wasn't one of the choices.

Benjy Sarlin ‏@BenjySarlin 8m8 minutes ago
NEW Monmouth poll of PA:

Clinton 48 (-2)
Trump 44 (+4)

Senate:

McGinty 47
Toomey 44

Poll taken Oct 29-Nov 1, so roughly at Peak Comey.

LooseGoose wrote:Benjy Sarlin ‏@BenjySarlin  8m8 minutes ago
NEW Monmouth poll of PA:

Clinton 48 (-2)
Trump 44 (+4)

Senate:

McGinty 47
Toomey 44

Poll taken Oct 29-Nov 1, so roughly at Peak Comey.

so what do you think will happen in 6 days?

Hillary definitely wins popular vote.. by far. I suspect she'll still squeak out the electoral college, as Trump has very little room for error. She needs to call out the big dogs the next 6 days: Bernie, Pocahontas, Moochelle, Obama the Socialist Muslim from Kenya - they're all much popular than she is and can also ignite a crowd.

I would so vote for Obummer for a 3rd term. Let's all do that.

Watch Out Pylon! wrote:I would so vote for Obummer for a 3rd term. Let's all do that.

he'd win in a landslide if he could run again.

I'm gonna miss him and his family. Great family and pure class.

You can probably rule WI out for Trump.
================

MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll 2m2 minutes ago
New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump among likely voters in WI 46% to 40%. #mulawpoll

Robert J Sakimano wrote:so what do you think will happen in 6 days?

My today's prediction is still the map I put in TN's thread.   A 269-269 tie.   The Wild Card in that is Maine D3.

As you may or may not know Maine and Nebraska are the only 2 states that award Electoral Votes by Congressional District.

Back in '08 Dems thought that was a GREAT IDEA when Obama won 1 in NE.  BUT Dems HATE the idea if that method spreading Nationwide since all of a sudden their Presidential advantage would be flipped on it's head as this map shows:  All of sudden Reps would be getting a LOT of EC votes where they now get none - in CA, PA, IL, MI, VA, WI, NY and others.   Yes Dems pick some up too but it's advantage R.



Well if Maine 3 flips for Trump he wins 270-268....THAT would be the perfectly weird outcome for this election.

No outcome where Trump wins is a "perfect" outcome. No no no no no no.

LooseGoose wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:so what do you think will happen in 6 days?

My today's prediction is still the map I put in TN's thread.   A 269-269 tie.   The Wild Card in that is Maine D3.

As you may or may not know Maine and Nebraska are the only 2 states that award Electoral Votes by Congressional District.

Back in '08 Dems thought that was a GREAT IDEA when Obama won 1 in NE.  BUT Dems HATE the idea if that method spreading Nationwide since all of a sudden their Presidential advantage would be flipped on it's head as this map shows:  All of sudden Reps would be getting a LOT of EC votes where they now get none - in CA, PA, IL, MI, VA, WI, NY and others.   Yes Dems pick some up too but it's advantage R.



Well if Maine 3 flips for Trump he wins 270-268....THAT would be the perfectly weird outcome for this election.

I see what you're saying but, statistically, I don't see that happening.

if that does occur, I owe you something... I don't really know what, but I'll think of something.

I'm one of these that part of me thinks Hillary could win in an electoral landslide.. and then another part of me thinks that Trump could squeak out an electoral win.

Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:No outcome where Trump wins is a "perfect" outcome. No no no no no no.

The statement wasn't "perfect".....it was "perfectly weird". Two very different meanings grasshoppper.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:I see what you're saying but, statistically, I don't see that happening.

if that does occur, I owe you something... I don't really know what, but I'll think of something.

I'm one of these that part of me thinks Hillary could win in an electoral landslide.. and then another part of me thinks that Trump could squeak out an electoral win.

As of this morning Nate Silver gives the 269 tie a 1.something% chance of happening, so not very likely but it would drag the drama on for another 2 months as we heard about faithless electors, etc.

LooseGoose wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:I see what you're saying but, statistically, I don't see that happening.

if that does occur, I owe you something... I don't really know what, but I'll think of something.

I'm one of these that part of me thinks Hillary could win in an electoral landslide.. and then another part of me thinks that Trump could squeak out an electoral win.

As of this morning Nate Silver gives the 269 tie a 1.something% chance of happening, so not very likely but it would drag the drama on for another 2 months as we heard about faithless electors, etc.

Nate Silver.. of East Lansing High School.

Bob's home state is very important.

Turtleneck wrote:Bob's home state is very important.

If Hills wins it then you can turn out Trump's lights.

Turtleneck wrote:Bob's home state is very important.

indeed - I think it'll determine who wins the election.

It's a weird state demographically. Very educated in some parts (I've been told that the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area has more PhD's per capita than any other area in the country. I believe it not only with the universities but it's also a very research-rich area)...

and then some very uneducated areas (like where I grew up - beautiful, beautiful area - but you get out of Asheville and there isn't exactly a ton of folks with higher ed experience.. especially the farther west you go towards Bryson City, Robbinsville, etc).

it still has some southern bible belt aspects to it, but also a big city like Charlotte.. very progressive areas like Asheville, Boone, Chapel Hill, etc - medium-sized cities like Greensboro, Raleigh, Winston-Salem.

interesting state demographically and politically.

Sean T at RCP ‏@SeanTrende 11m11 minutes ago
.@FiveThirtyEight nowcast up to 32.2% Trump. So we're at Russian Roulette with bullets in two cylinders.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

Turtleneck wrote:Bob's home state is very important.

indeed - I think it'll determine who wins the election.

It's a weird state demographically. Very educated in some parts (I've been told that the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area has more PhD's per capita than any other area in the country. I believe it not only with the universities but it's also a very research-rich area)...

and then some very uneducated areas (like where I grew up - beautiful, beautiful area - but you get out of Asheville and there isn't exactly a ton of folks with higher ed experience.. especially the farther west you go towards Bryson City, Robbinsville, etc).

it still has some southern bible belt aspects to it, but also a big city like Charlotte.. very progressive areas like Asheville, Boone, Chapel Hill, etc - medium-sized cities like Greensboro, Raleigh, Winston-Salem.

interesting state demographically and politically.

So do you and people you grew up with in NC bother watching a movie like Deliverance or do you just figure, why bother, I basically lived it?

Looks like Goose is the kind of voter who cries foul when Democrats won't approve a SCOTUS nominee like Bork but thinks letting the number of SCOTUS Justices to fewer than we have had since 1837 is alright because he can't abide with a democratically elected President.

Appears Goose is really a one party voter and if the party he supports doesn't win a Presidential election 179 years of legal precident can be ignored.

Conor Sen ‏@conorsen 1h1 hour ago
Last time HRC trailed in a poll:

CO: Sept
MI: never
NH: never
PA: July
VA: never
WI: never

GRR Spartan wrote:Looks like Goose is the kind of voter who cries foul when Democrats won't approve a SCOTUS nominee like Bork but thinks letting the number of SCOTUS Justices to fewer than we have had since 1837 is alright because he can't abide with a democratically elected President.

Appears Goose is really a one party voter and if the party he supports doesn't win a Presidential election 179 years of legal precident can be ignored.

1837 is wrong.

And here's an outlier - a Hampton University poll of VA showing Trump ahead.

Hampton University's CPP Latest Poll Shows VA Voter Shift from Clinton to Trump Post Email Investigation

GRR Spartan wrote:Looks like Goose is the kind of voter who cries foul when Democrats won't approve a SCOTUS nominee like Bork but thinks letting the number of SCOTUS Justices to fewer than we have had since 1837 is alright because he can't abide with a democratically elected President.

Appears Goose is really a one party voter and if the party he supports doesn't win a Presidential election 179 years of legal precident can be ignored.

So you're saying it's inconsistent to be upset about Bork and retaliate with the same? So your position is to let the Dems fuck us on Bork then lay down and let them fuck us again? LMAO - and I'm the inconsistent one.

And as you know the Presidential election is only 1/2 of the equation for the SC. If the Dems win the Senate then it's a moot point.
As a politician I knew once said "Elections matter".

Charles C. W. Cooke ‏@charlescwcooke 9m9 minutes ago
Once they lose/die/retire, Republicans instantly cease to have been a threat to the country. It’s a neat trick.

CircaVerified account ‏@Circa
.@POTUS "I ran against John McCain, I ran against Mitt Romney ... I never thought that the republic was at risk if they were elected."

Harry Reid in 2005 a speech on "Advice & Consent"

The duties of the United States Senate are set forth in the Constitution of the United States. Nowhere in that document does it say the Senate has a duty to give presidential nominees “an up or down vote.” It says appointments shall be made with the Advice and Consent of the Senate. That is very different than saying that every nominee receives a vote.

It's a long speech, enjoy.

In contrast, this President has never ever sought or heeded the advice of the Senate. But now he demands our consent.

That’s not how America works. The Senate is not a rubber stamp for the Executive branch. Rather, we’re the one institution where the Minority has a voice and the ability to check the power of the Majority. Today, in the face of President Bush’s power grab, that’s more important than ever. Republicans want one-party rule. The Senate is the last place where the President and his Republican colleagues can’t have it all. And, now President Bush wants to destroy our checks and balances to ensure that he does get it all.

Senator Harry Reid’s Floor Statement on “Advice & Consent”

LooseGoose wrote:Conor Sen ‏@conorsen 1h1 hour ago
Last time HRC trailed in a poll:

CO: Sept
MI: never
NH: never
PA: July
VA: never
WI: never

WI is a lock for Hills...best case out of here is Ron Johnson keeps his seat

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 5h5 hours ago
#Michigan
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Tracking Poll:

Clinton 47% (+3)
Trump 44%
Johnson 4
Stein 3

Was HRC +7 yesterday

CheesySpartan wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:indeed - I think it'll determine who wins the election.

It's a weird state demographically. Very educated in some parts (I've been told that the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area has more PhD's per capita than any other area in the country. I believe it not only with the universities but it's also a very research-rich area)...

and then some very uneducated areas (like where I grew up - beautiful, beautiful area - but you get out of Asheville and there isn't exactly a ton of folks with higher ed experience.. especially the farther west you go towards Bryson City, Robbinsville, etc).

it still has some southern bible belt aspects to it, but also a big city like Charlotte.. very progressive areas like Asheville, Boone, Chapel Hill, etc - medium-sized cities like Greensboro, Raleigh, Winston-Salem.

interesting state demographically and politically.

So do you and people you grew up with in NC bother watching a movie like Deliverance or do you just figure, why bother, I basically lived it?

I have a story you wouldn't believe.

Check your PM.

CheesySpartan wrote:

LooseGoose wrote:Conor Sen ‏@conorsen 1h1 hour ago
Last time HRC trailed in a poll:

CO: Sept
MI: never
NH: never
PA: July
VA: never
WI: never

WI is a lock for Hills...best case out of here is Ron Johnson keeps his seat

Audio Consultant?

LooseGoose wrote:Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers  5h5 hours ago
#Michigan
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Tracking Poll:

Clinton 47% (+3)
Trump 44%
Johnson 4
Stein 3

Was HRC +7 yesterday

Which tells you what about the accuracy of the poll? Did 400,000 people change their minds literally over night? Or is their sampling poor?

I suspect Hillary is holding fairly steady in PA, MI, WI and VA. Trump's margin of error is very slim relative to hers. She has multiple paths to 270. Trump? Not so much.

If these polls change any more, LWS is going to jump back into this thread.

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp 36m36 minutes ago
Reuters/Ipsos state polls

Mich: HRC 40, DJT 36
Ohio: HRC 43, DJT 39
PA: HRC 45, DJT 39

(mich is close. but firewall seems there)