Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Guy BensonVerified account @guypbenson
NH Journal poll: Trump slightly ahead, Ayotte up two points.
Poll: Ayotte Leads in Final Stretch, as Hassan Faces Headwinds from Clinton Support
NH Journal poll: Trump slightly ahead, Ayotte up two points.
Poll: Ayotte Leads in Final Stretch, as Hassan Faces Headwinds from Clinton Support
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
IT's crumbling all over...
MonmouthPoll @MonmouthPoll 36m36 minutes ago
BREAKING: Indiana Senate Now Tied
#INSen
Bayh 45 (48 mid-Oct / 48 Aug)
Young 45 (42 / 41)
Pres
DJT 50
HRC 39
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_103116/ …
MonmouthPoll @MonmouthPoll 36m36 minutes ago
BREAKING: Indiana Senate Now Tied
#INSen
Bayh 45 (48 mid-Oct / 48 Aug)
Young 45 (42 / 41)
Pres
DJT 50
HRC 39
https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_103116/ …
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Robert J Sakimano- Geronte
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Even Hills knows...
![Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 5 CwIdCHLXEAEf3mn](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwIdCHLXEAEf3mn.jpg)
![Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 5 CwIdCHLXEAEf3mn](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwIdCHLXEAEf3mn.jpg)
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are Increasing
We’ve written about this before, but I wanted to call your attention to it again because the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split keeps widening in our forecast. While there’s an outside chance that such a split could benefit Clinton if she wins the exact set of states that form her “firewall,” it’s far more likely to benefit Donald Trump, according to our forecast. Thus, as of early Monday evening, our polls-only model gave Hillary Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning the popular vote but just a 75 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. There’s roughly a 10 percent chance of Trump’s winning the White House while losing the popular vote, in other words.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
LooseGoose wrote:The Odds Of An Electoral College-Popular Vote Split Are IncreasingWe’ve written about this before, but I wanted to call your attention to it again because the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split keeps widening in our forecast. While there’s an outside chance that such a split could benefit Clinton if she wins the exact set of states that form her “firewall,” it’s far more likely to benefit Donald Trump, according to our forecast. Thus, as of early Monday evening, our polls-only model gave Hillary Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning the popular vote but just a 75 percent chance of winning the Electoral College. There’s roughly a 10 percent chance of Trump’s winning the White House while losing the popular vote, in other words.
It's good news for Trump that he only has a 15% chance of winning the popular vote, and only a 25% chance of winning the election?
Cym Jim- Geronte
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Trump needs to flip MI or WI and NH in addition to winning CO, FL, NC, .
This reminds me of Romney flipping Ohio stories in '12 where he was trailing by less than 4 points.
If all those folks n Clinton campaign offices run a good get out the vote operation in the next 5 days Clinton will win.
What's worse than the head of the FBI talkng about new emaiils being found or US Senators saying they will block SCOTUS nominees if Clinton is elected? An Electoral tie where even more backroom agreemants can be hatched.
This reminds me of Romney flipping Ohio stories in '12 where he was trailing by less than 4 points.
If all those folks n Clinton campaign offices run a good get out the vote operation in the next 5 days Clinton will win.
What's worse than the head of the FBI talkng about new emaiils being found or US Senators saying they will block SCOTUS nominees if Clinton is elected? An Electoral tie where even more backroom agreemants can be hatched.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
4 New @CNN Battleground Polls:
AZ
Clinton 44
Trump 49
FL
Clinton 49
Trump 47
NV
Clinton 43
Trump 49
PA
Clinton 48
Trump 44
AZ
Clinton 44
Trump 49
FL
Clinton 49
Trump 47
NV
Clinton 43
Trump 49
PA
Clinton 48
Trump 44
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
GRR Spartan wrote:What's worse than the head of the FBI talkng about new emaiils being found or US Senators saying they will block SCOTUS nominees if Clinton is elected? An Electoral tie where even more backroom agreemants can be hatched.
You do know the SCOTUS isn't fixed at 9 justices? There were 6 for quite some time. So it's not the end of the world and there is no requirement for the Senate to approve any nominee.
Based on that historical fact, I think it's worse that a major party candidate is facing a felony indictment.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
LooseGoose wrote:GRR Spartan wrote:What's worse than the head of the FBI talkng about new emaiils being found or US Senators saying they will block SCOTUS nominees if Clinton is elected? An Electoral tie where even more backroom agreemants can be hatched.
You do know the SCOTUS isn't fixed at 9 justices? There were 6 for quite some time. So it's not the end of the world and there is no requirement for the Senate to approve any nominee.
Based on that historical fact, I think it's worse that a major party candidate is facing a felony indictment.
That wasn't one of the choices.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Benjy Sarlin @BenjySarlin 8m8 minutes ago
NEW Monmouth poll of PA:
Clinton 48 (-2)
Trump 44 (+4)
Senate:
McGinty 47
Toomey 44
Poll taken Oct 29-Nov 1, so roughly at Peak Comey.
NEW Monmouth poll of PA:
Clinton 48 (-2)
Trump 44 (+4)
Senate:
McGinty 47
Toomey 44
Poll taken Oct 29-Nov 1, so roughly at Peak Comey.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
so what do you think will happen in 6 days?LooseGoose wrote:Benjy Sarlin @BenjySarlin 8m8 minutes ago
NEW Monmouth poll of PA:
Clinton 48 (-2)
Trump 44 (+4)
Senate:
McGinty 47
Toomey 44
Poll taken Oct 29-Nov 1, so roughly at Peak Comey.
Hillary definitely wins popular vote.. by far. I suspect she'll still squeak out the electoral college, as Trump has very little room for error. She needs to call out the big dogs the next 6 days: Bernie, Pocahontas, Moochelle, Obama the Socialist Muslim from Kenya - they're all much popular than she is and can also ignite a crowd.
Robert J Sakimano- Geronte
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
I would so vote for Obummer for a 3rd term. Let's all do that.
Watch Out Pylon!- Geronte
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
he'd win in a landslide if he could run again.Watch Out Pylon! wrote:I would so vote for Obummer for a 3rd term. Let's all do that.
I'm gonna miss him and his family. Great family and pure class.
Robert J Sakimano- Geronte
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
You can probably rule WI out for Trump.
================
MULawPoll @MULawPoll 2m2 minutes ago
New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump among likely voters in WI 46% to 40%. #mulawpoll
================
MULawPoll @MULawPoll 2m2 minutes ago
New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump among likely voters in WI 46% to 40%. #mulawpoll
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Robert J Sakimano wrote:so what do you think will happen in 6 days?
My today's prediction is still the map I put in TN's thread. A 269-269 tie. The Wild Card in that is Maine D3.
As you may or may not know Maine and Nebraska are the only 2 states that award Electoral Votes by Congressional District.
Back in '08 Dems thought that was a GREAT IDEA when Obama won 1 in NE. BUT Dems HATE the idea if that method spreading Nationwide since all of a sudden their Presidential advantage would be flipped on it's head as this map shows: All of sudden Reps would be getting a LOT of EC votes where they now get none - in CA, PA, IL, MI, VA, WI, NY and others. Yes Dems pick some up too but it's advantage R.
![Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 5 Il8XjAeg5Kio](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/infographics/images/il8XjAeg5Kio.png)
Well if Maine 3 flips for Trump he wins 270-268....THAT would be the perfectly weird outcome for this election.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
No outcome where Trump wins is a "perfect" outcome. No no no no no no.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
I see what you're saying but, statistically, I don't see that happening.LooseGoose wrote:Robert J Sakimano wrote:so what do you think will happen in 6 days?
My today's prediction is still the map I put in TN's thread. A 269-269 tie. The Wild Card in that is Maine D3.
As you may or may not know Maine and Nebraska are the only 2 states that award Electoral Votes by Congressional District.
Back in '08 Dems thought that was a GREAT IDEA when Obama won 1 in NE. BUT Dems HATE the idea if that method spreading Nationwide since all of a sudden their Presidential advantage would be flipped on it's head as this map shows: All of sudden Reps would be getting a LOT of EC votes where they now get none - in CA, PA, IL, MI, VA, WI, NY and others. Yes Dems pick some up too but it's advantage R.
Well if Maine 3 flips for Trump he wins 270-268....THAT would be the perfectly weird outcome for this election.
if that does occur, I owe you something... I don't really know what, but I'll think of something.
I'm one of these that part of me thinks Hillary could win in an electoral landslide.. and then another part of me thinks that Trump could squeak out an electoral win.
![Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 5 2599972566](/users/3113/44/16/86/smiles/2599972566.gif)
Robert J Sakimano- Geronte
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Other Teams Pursuing That wrote:No outcome where Trump wins is a "perfect" outcome. No no no no no no.
The statement wasn't "perfect".....it was "perfectly weird". Two very different meanings grasshoppper.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Robert J Sakimano wrote:I see what you're saying but, statistically, I don't see that happening.
if that does occur, I owe you something... I don't really know what, but I'll think of something.
I'm one of these that part of me thinks Hillary could win in an electoral landslide.. and then another part of me thinks that Trump could squeak out an electoral win.![]()
As of this morning Nate Silver gives the 269 tie a 1.something% chance of happening, so not very likely but it would drag the drama on for another 2 months as we heard about faithless electors, etc.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Nate Silver.. of East Lansing High School.LooseGoose wrote:Robert J Sakimano wrote:I see what you're saying but, statistically, I don't see that happening.
if that does occur, I owe you something... I don't really know what, but I'll think of something.
I'm one of these that part of me thinks Hillary could win in an electoral landslide.. and then another part of me thinks that Trump could squeak out an electoral win.![]()
As of this morning Nate Silver gives the 269 tie a 1.something% chance of happening, so not very likely but it would drag the drama on for another 2 months as we heard about faithless electors, etc.
![Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 5 3493939353](/users/3113/44/16/86/smiles/3493939353.gif)
Robert J Sakimano- Geronte
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Bob's home state is very important.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Turtleneck wrote:Bob's home state is very important.
If Hills wins it then you can turn out Trump's lights.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
indeed - I think it'll determine who wins the election.Turtleneck wrote:Bob's home state is very important.
It's a weird state demographically. Very educated in some parts (I've been told that the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area has more PhD's per capita than any other area in the country. I believe it not only with the universities but it's also a very research-rich area)...
and then some very uneducated areas (like where I grew up - beautiful, beautiful area - but you get out of Asheville and there isn't exactly a ton of folks with higher ed experience.. especially the farther west you go towards Bryson City, Robbinsville, etc).
it still has some southern bible belt aspects to it, but also a big city like Charlotte.. very progressive areas like Asheville, Boone, Chapel Hill, etc - medium-sized cities like Greensboro, Raleigh, Winston-Salem.
interesting state demographically and politically.
Robert J Sakimano- Geronte
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende 11m11 minutes ago
.@FiveThirtyEight nowcast up to 32.2% Trump. So we're at Russian Roulette with bullets in two cylinders.
.@FiveThirtyEight nowcast up to 32.2% Trump. So we're at Russian Roulette with bullets in two cylinders.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Robert J Sakimano wrote:indeed - I think it'll determine who wins the election.Turtleneck wrote:Bob's home state is very important.
It's a weird state demographically. Very educated in some parts (I've been told that the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area has more PhD's per capita than any other area in the country. I believe it not only with the universities but it's also a very research-rich area)...
and then some very uneducated areas (like where I grew up - beautiful, beautiful area - but you get out of Asheville and there isn't exactly a ton of folks with higher ed experience.. especially the farther west you go towards Bryson City, Robbinsville, etc).
it still has some southern bible belt aspects to it, but also a big city like Charlotte.. very progressive areas like Asheville, Boone, Chapel Hill, etc - medium-sized cities like Greensboro, Raleigh, Winston-Salem.
interesting state demographically and politically.
So do you and people you grew up with in NC bother watching a movie like Deliverance or do you just figure, why bother, I basically lived it?
![tongue](https://2img.net/i/fa/i/smiles/icon_tongue.png)
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Looks like Goose is the kind of voter who cries foul when Democrats won't approve a SCOTUS nominee like Bork but thinks letting the number of SCOTUS Justices to fewer than we have had since 1837 is alright because he can't abide with a democratically elected President.
Appears Goose is really a one party voter and if the party he supports doesn't win a Presidential election 179 years of legal precident can be ignored.
Appears Goose is really a one party voter and if the party he supports doesn't win a Presidential election 179 years of legal precident can be ignored.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Conor Sen @conorsen 1h1 hour ago
Last time HRC trailed in a poll:
CO: Sept
MI: never
NH: never
PA: July
VA: never
WI: never
Last time HRC trailed in a poll:
CO: Sept
MI: never
NH: never
PA: July
VA: never
WI: never
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
GRR Spartan wrote:Looks like Goose is the kind of voter who cries foul when Democrats won't approve a SCOTUS nominee like Bork but thinks letting the number of SCOTUS Justices to fewer than we have had since 1837 is alright because he can't abide with a democratically elected President.
Appears Goose is really a one party voter and if the party he supports doesn't win a Presidential election 179 years of legal precident can be ignored.
1837 is wrong.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
And here's an outlier - a Hampton University poll of VA showing Trump ahead.
Hampton University's CPP Latest Poll Shows VA Voter Shift from Clinton to Trump Post Email Investigation
Hampton University's CPP Latest Poll Shows VA Voter Shift from Clinton to Trump Post Email Investigation
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
GRR Spartan wrote:Looks like Goose is the kind of voter who cries foul when Democrats won't approve a SCOTUS nominee like Bork but thinks letting the number of SCOTUS Justices to fewer than we have had since 1837 is alright because he can't abide with a democratically elected President.
Appears Goose is really a one party voter and if the party he supports doesn't win a Presidential election 179 years of legal precident can be ignored.
So you're saying it's inconsistent to be upset about Bork and retaliate with the same? So your position is to let the Dems fuck us on Bork then lay down and let them fuck us again? LMAO - and I'm the inconsistent one.
And as you know the Presidential election is only 1/2 of the equation for the SC. If the Dems win the Senate then it's a moot point.
As a politician I knew once said "Elections matter".
Charles C. W. Cooke @charlescwcooke 9m9 minutes ago
Once they lose/die/retire, Republicans instantly cease to have been a threat to the country. It’s a neat trick.
CircaVerified account @Circa
.@POTUS "I ran against John McCain, I ran against Mitt Romney ... I never thought that the republic was at risk if they were elected."
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Harry Reid in 2005 a speech on "Advice & Consent"
It's a long speech, enjoy.
Senator Harry Reid’s Floor Statement on “Advice & Consent”
The duties of the United States Senate are set forth in the Constitution of the United States. Nowhere in that document does it say the Senate has a duty to give presidential nominees “an up or down vote.” It says appointments shall be made with the Advice and Consent of the Senate. That is very different than saying that every nominee receives a vote.
It's a long speech, enjoy.
In contrast, this President has never ever sought or heeded the advice of the Senate. But now he demands our consent.
That’s not how America works. The Senate is not a rubber stamp for the Executive branch. Rather, we’re the one institution where the Minority has a voice and the ability to check the power of the Majority. Today, in the face of President Bush’s power grab, that’s more important than ever. Republicans want one-party rule. The Senate is the last place where the President and his Republican colleagues can’t have it all. And, now President Bush wants to destroy our checks and balances to ensure that he does get it all.
Senator Harry Reid’s Floor Statement on “Advice & Consent”
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
LooseGoose wrote:Conor Sen @conorsen 1h1 hour ago
Last time HRC trailed in a poll:
CO: Sept
MI: never
NH: never
PA: July
VA: never
WI: never
WI is a lock for Hills...best case out of here is Ron Johnson keeps his seat
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 5h5 hours ago
#Michigan
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Tracking Poll:
Clinton 47% (+3)
Trump 44%
Johnson 4
Stein 3
Was HRC +7 yesterday
#Michigan
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Tracking Poll:
Clinton 47% (+3)
Trump 44%
Johnson 4
Stein 3
Was HRC +7 yesterday
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
I have a story you wouldn't believe.CheesySpartan wrote:Robert J Sakimano wrote:indeed - I think it'll determine who wins the election.
It's a weird state demographically. Very educated in some parts (I've been told that the Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill area has more PhD's per capita than any other area in the country. I believe it not only with the universities but it's also a very research-rich area)...
and then some very uneducated areas (like where I grew up - beautiful, beautiful area - but you get out of Asheville and there isn't exactly a ton of folks with higher ed experience.. especially the farther west you go towards Bryson City, Robbinsville, etc).
it still has some southern bible belt aspects to it, but also a big city like Charlotte.. very progressive areas like Asheville, Boone, Chapel Hill, etc - medium-sized cities like Greensboro, Raleigh, Winston-Salem.
interesting state demographically and politically.
So do you and people you grew up with in NC bother watching a movie like Deliverance or do you just figure, why bother, I basically lived it?![]()
Check your PM.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Audio Consultant?CheesySpartan wrote:LooseGoose wrote:Conor Sen @conorsen 1h1 hour ago
Last time HRC trailed in a poll:
CO: Sept
MI: never
NH: never
PA: July
VA: never
WI: never
WI is a lock for Hills...best case out of here is Ron Johnson keeps his seat
Robert J Sakimano- Geronte
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
LooseGoose wrote:Political Polls @PpollingNumbers 5h5 hours ago
#Michigan
Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell Tracking Poll:
Clinton 47% (+3)
Trump 44%
Johnson 4
Stein 3
Was HRC +7 yesterday
Which tells you what about the accuracy of the poll? Did 400,000 people change their minds literally over night? Or is their sampling poor?
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
I suspect Hillary is holding fairly steady in PA, MI, WI and VA. Trump's margin of error is very slim relative to hers. She has multiple paths to 270. Trump? Not so much.
Robert J Sakimano- Geronte
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
If these polls change any more, LWS is going to jump back into this thread.
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Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)
Sam Stein @samsteinhp 36m36 minutes ago
Reuters/Ipsos state polls
Mich: HRC 40, DJT 36
Ohio: HRC 43, DJT 39
PA: HRC 45, DJT 39
(mich is close. but firewall seems there)
Reuters/Ipsos state polls
Mich: HRC 40, DJT 36
Ohio: HRC 43, DJT 39
PA: HRC 45, DJT 39
(mich is close. but firewall seems there)
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» Good, good, let the hate flow through you a little early: Bye week pregame thread
» Uh oh. This isn't good for the Donald.
» I’ve had a good week in the hot tub...
» Starting the week off with some good news.
» Michigan's Term Limit Laws Have Limited Good Government and Created Bad Government - Update - New Law to be On November 2022 Ballot
» Uh oh. This isn't good for the Donald.
» I’ve had a good week in the hot tub...
» Starting the week off with some good news.
» Michigan's Term Limit Laws Have Limited Good Government and Created Bad Government - Update - New Law to be On November 2022 Ballot
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