Re: Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%)

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2016-08-12, 10:37

NigelUno wrote:

12.7%

is this thread to you what my Frieeeday thread is to me? Wink

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-08-13, 11:41

Trump has said if he loses PA general election it will be a fixed result.

The man is toxic.

by **NigelUno** 2016-08-13, 22:02

Uh oh. A new low...

Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 2 2b07

12.2%

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-08-14, 10:02

Trump campaigned in Connecticut this weekend. A state his own staff says he has no shot at winning. Less than 100 days until Election Day and he burned a day in Connecticut.

The only reason I can think of is Its close. He could get there easily, be back home quickly and say he spent the day courting voters.

Despite claims I think Trump realized the President job thing is a lot more work than he anticipated and there isn't a graceful way out.

by **NigelUno** 2016-08-14, 12:27

Another new record low:

Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 2 2b07

11.1%

by **NigelUno** 2016-08-15, 10:28

And again...

Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 2 2b07

11.0%

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2016-08-15, 10:44

GRR Spartan wrote:Trump campaigned in Connecticut this weekend. A state his own staff says he has no shot at winning. Less than 100 days until Election Day and he burned a day in Connecticut.

The only reason I can think of is Its close. He could get there easily, be back home quickly and say he spent the day courting voters.

Despite claims I think Trump realized the President job thing is a lot more work than he anticipated and there isn't a graceful way out.

pretty good assessment here.

I think he started out just to promote himself.. once he started attracting the low-intellect knuckle-draggers, he kept on - mocking them at campaign rallies - then he went and got himself the nomination. Now he's like "wtf"?!?! Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 2 502811600

Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 2 502811600

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-08-15, 13:37

Now that liberal rag The Wall Street Journal is calling on the GOP to make sure Trump gets his stuff in one bag or they should bail on his candidacy and put all their resources into retaining legislative seats.

by **NigelUno** 2016-08-19, 07:37

Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 2 2b06

13.6%

by TheReal_LWS 2016-08-19, 09:01

The dude that the dems nominated is kind of scary the way he keeps having dizzy spells.

by **DWags** 2016-08-19, 09:23

How the fuck is Hilliary goin to win? Fucking trump. Stupid republicans

by **NigelUno** 2016-08-23, 21:12

15.0%

by **NigelUno** 2016-08-30, 09:39

21.4%

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2016-08-30, 09:49

NigelUno wrote:

21.4%

Cheeto Hitler.. Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 2 3493939353

by CheesySpartan 2016-08-30, 10:21

The "winner" whoever it is will have "won" without 50+% of the popular vote. Just shows how weak both main party candidates are SMH.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** 2016-08-30, 10:28

CheesySpartan wrote:The "winner" whoever it is will have "won" without 50+% of the popular vote. Just shows how weak both main party candidates are SMH.

If it makes you feel better and helps you step off the ledge a little... And it probably doesn't... But that's not exactly uncommon. And not just historically, but recently as well. According to this it's happened 18 times or so?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin

by CheesySpartan 2016-08-30, 12:11

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:
CheesySpartan wrote:The "winner" whoever it is will have "won" without 50+% of the popular vote. Just shows how weak both main party candidates are SMH.

If it makes you feel better and helps you step off the ledge a little... And it probably doesn't... But that's not exactly uncommon. And not just historically, but recently as well. According to this it's happened 18 times or so?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin

If you round up to whole numbers its only 4 times in the last 100 years. Ironically the other Clinton is half of those. Maybe more sad is the fact that only 50-55% of registered voters participate in the presidential vote to begin with. WTF!

by **Travis of the Cosmos** 2016-08-30, 12:21

CheesySpartan wrote:
Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

If it makes you feel better and helps you step off the ledge a little... And it probably doesn't... But that's not exactly uncommon. And not just historically, but recently as well. According to this it's happened 18 times or so?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_popular_vote_margin

If you round up to whole numbers its only 4 times in the last 100 years. Ironically the other Clinton is half of those. Maybe more sad is the fact that only 50-55% of registered voters participate in the presidential vote to begin with. WTF!

Most recent examples that did get over 50% are only a couple of percentage points above it anyway, if we're going to start rounding stuff instead of sticking to the hard number you set... It just isn't that big of a deal. Whether the winning candidate is above 50% by 10,000 votes or below it by 10,000 votes is doesn't really make that much of a difference in my view.

Also, yeah, 3 times in the last, what, 6 elections? I think if there is anything to derive from that it's that the two political parties do a better job of polarizing their bases against he other side than they do of promoting their own.

by **NigelUno** 2016-09-08, 12:36

30.8%

by TheReal_LWS 2016-09-08, 12:43

Percentage chance that Nate Silver will kill himself if Trump wins: 99.533333%

by TheReal_LWS 2016-09-21, 08:51

Nigel, time to update your thread title!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

43% now. And then there is this article:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nate-silver-trump-surges-from-3-to-48-chance-of-winning-in-1-month/article/2602386

The left in full Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 2 1550444538

Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 2 1550444538

mode!

by P Rob 2016-09-21, 09:26

I can't wait for Trump to win. Want to see "celebrities" move to other places. Like they did when George 43 was elected.

by **NigelUno** 2016-09-21, 09:28

42.9%

by TheReal_LWS 2016-09-21, 09:37

Factor in that Clinton is outspending Trump 5 to 1, and its safe to say she is in real trouble.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/e80b356a03204fff8b260618cb458017/clinton-campaign-raced-through-50-million-last-month

Liberals always think you can just throw more (of other people's) money at a problem. lol!

by **InTenSity** 2016-09-21, 09:59

Is Trump a liberal then?
Trump's charity $ used to pay lawyers for his for profit companies.

by Guest 2016-09-21, 10:36

InTenSity wrote:Is Trump a liberal then?
Trump's charity $ used to pay lawyers for his for profit companies.

He needs to take charity lessons from the Clintons.

Clinton Foundation Spent Less Than 6 Percent On Charitable Grants In 2014

by TheReal_LWS 2016-09-21, 10:55

InTenSity wrote:Is Trump a liberal then?
Trump's charity $ used to pay lawyers for his for profit companies.

All relative InTenSity. Is Trump more liberal than say Ted Cruz? Yes. He is less liberal than say Billary Clinton? Yes.

Is Trump the candidate I would choose if I can choose anyone? No. But given the choice between him and Billary....................

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-09-21, 14:08

A few months ago Trump bragged he could shoot someone in Times Square and it wouldn't cost him votes.
I thought as an odd remark at the time. Now I think he is correct. His supporters don't care about his charities, don't care if he admires Putin or if he contradicts himself on things he's said on the stump. They will still vote for him.

by **Robert J Sakimano** 2016-09-21, 14:13

GRR Spartan wrote:A few months ago Trump bragged he could shoot someone in Times Square and it wouldn't cost him votes.
I thought as an odd remark at the time. Now I think he is correct. His supporters don't care about his charities, don't care if he admires Putin or if he contradicts himself on things he's said on the stump. They will still vote for him.

his supporters are deplorable people...

which I find entertaining, since they're also good, christian-folk who run around the country while being sanctimonious and judgmental of others.... Not a good week for The Donald - 538 projects his chance of winning is 21.6% (Update 11.0%) - Page 2 502811600

by P Rob 2016-09-21, 14:16

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
GRR Spartan wrote:A few months ago Trump bragged he could shoot someone in Times Square and it wouldn't cost him votes.
I thought as an odd remark at the time. Now I think he is correct. His supporters don't care about his charities, don't care if he admires Putin or if he contradicts himself on things he's said on the stump. They will still vote for him.
his supporters are deplorable people...

which I find entertaining, since they're also good, christian-folk who run around the country while being sanctimonious and judgmental of others....

Bob Sacramento with another hot take.

by TheReal_LWS 2016-09-21, 14:46

GRR Spartan wrote:A few months ago Trump bragged he could shoot someone in Times Square and it wouldn't cost him votes.
I thought as an odd remark at the time. Now I think he is correct. His supporters don't care about his charities, don't care if he admires Putin or if he contradicts himself on things he's said on the stump. They will still vote for him.

I believe he said Hillary could shoot someone and not get prosecuted for it. I am going to assume that is what you are getting mixed up unless you provide a link to the contrary.

by TheReal_LWS 2016-09-21, 14:46

P Rob wrote:
Robert J Sakimano wrote:his supporters are deplorable people...

which I find entertaining, since they're also good, christian-folk who run around the country while being sanctimonious and judgmental of others....

Bob Sacramento with another hot take.

Please do not quote posters I have on ignore. TIA

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-09-21, 16:23

TheReal_LWS wrote:
GRR Spartan wrote:A few months ago Trump bragged he could shoot someone in Times Square and it wouldn't cost him votes.
I thought as an odd remark at the time. Now I think he is correct. His supporters don't care about his charities, don't care if he admires Putin or if he contradicts himself on things he's said on the stump. They will still vote for him.

I believe he said Hillary could shoot someone and not get prosecuted for it. I am going to assume that is what you are getting mixed up unless you provide a link to the contrary.

Say hello to contrary CNN January
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/23/politics/donald-trump-shoot-somebody-support/

by **Turtleneck** 2016-09-21, 16:32

TheReal_LWS wrote:
GRR Spartan wrote:A few months ago Trump bragged he could shoot someone in Times Square and it wouldn't cost him votes.
I thought as an odd remark at the time. Now I think he is correct. His supporters don't care about his charities, don't care if he admires Putin or if he contradicts himself on things he's said on the stump. They will still vote for him.

I believe he said Hillary could shoot someone and not get prosecuted for it. I am going to assume that is what you are getting mixed up unless you provide a link to the contrary.

You believe wrong. Go figure.

by **GRR Spartan** 2016-09-21, 16:53

LWS inadvertently proved a point.
Dislike for HRC is so high that people will attribute repugnant remarks made by Trump to her.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** 2016-09-21, 16:54

Turtleneck wrote:
TheReal_LWS wrote:

I believe he said Hillary could shoot someone and not get prosecuted for it. I am going to assume that is what you are getting mixed up unless you provide a link to the contrary.

You believe wrong. Go figure.

He did say that about her recently. To be fair.

To also be fair he also said it about himself months ago.

by Guest 2016-09-25, 20:27

Pretty good breakdown on who needs to win which state.....

Electoral Mapmaking Five paths to victory for Trump.

If both candidates win their respective must-win states (and split the two competitive congressional districts in Nebraska and Maine), that will bring the electoral-vote tally to 260 for Clinton and 253 for Trump, with Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire (25 combined electoral votes) still in play. Clinton's task would then be to win any two of the four remaining states; Trump's task would be to win any three. If Clinton wins Colorado and Trump wins the other three, the candidates would be tied at 269, with the election moving to the House of Representatives.

The Five Paths

Clinton's path to 270 is relatively simple: (a) steal Ohio, Florida, or North Carolina; or (b) win her five must-win states and prevent Trump from getting 16 more electoral votes from among the 25 remaining on the board. (If Clinton wins right-leaning Ohio, Florida, or North Carolina, there's no way she'll fail to win the requisite number of left-leaning states.) Trump's task is to win his 3 must-win states (plus the 23 states that are givens) and then follow any one of five different paths to winning the remaining 17 electoral votes he'd need to achieve victory.

by TheReal_LWS 2016-09-26, 09:41

UH OH!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

51.5% to 48.5%

Libs in panic! ROFL

After tonight I think Trump takes the lead. I can't see Billary doing much except fighting to remain awake.

by TheReal_LWS 2016-09-26, 09:41

Also, lead in Pennsylvania down to 3 points for Billary.

by **NigelUno** 2016-09-26, 10:11

TheReal_LWS wrote:UH OH!

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

51.5% to 48.5%

Libs in panic! ROFL

After tonight I think Trump takes the lead. I can't see Billary doing much except fighting to remain awake.

You think Trump "wins" the debate? He has a tendency to say silly things. Not sure that's going to play out well on a big stage.

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