The 2024 US House & Senate (& Presidential Election) and the Michigan Legislature - Who do you Think Wins?

kingstonlake wrote:I wonder if the level of disfunction the freedom caucus creates in the next year will play a role in the GOP convention.  Big donors may put their foot down. They're NOT gonna throw money at an un electable candidate (Trump) if it becomes apparent he can't win. He was a useful idiot for their investment when he was running against an opponent like Clinton. There was a ROI that made sense. If these freedom caucus idiots tied to Trump are a turn off in the general election I could see some serious deal making to buy out Trump.

Trapper Gus wrote:

kingstonlake wrote:I wonder if the level of disfunction the freedom caucus creates in the next year will play a role in the GOP convention.  Big donors may put their foot down. They're NOT gonna throw money at an un electable candidate (Trump) if it becomes apparent he can't win. He was a useful idiot for their investment when he was running against an opponent like Clinton. There was a ROI that made sense. If these freedom caucus idiots tied to Trump are a turn off in the general election I could see some serious deal making to buy out Trump.

Many of them are is safely gerrymandering districts and the big money people don't give a flying fig about all those social issues as long as they keep reducing their taxes and business regulations.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:I still think it's pretty funny that the presumed GOP nominee was charged with 34 felonies and found responsible for sexual assault.

And the christians don't even care and it was a half day story in the mainstream media.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:I still think it's pretty funny that the presumed GOP nominee was charged with 34 felonies and found responsible for sexual assault.

And the christians don't even care and it was a half day story in the mainstream media.

Jake from State Farm wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:I still think it's pretty funny that the presumed GOP nominee was charged with 34 felonies and found responsible for sexual assault.

And the christians don't even care and it was a half day story in the mainstream media.

I saw a big sign in someone's front yard the day after Trump was found responsible for sexual assault. It read "Moral Americans for Trump" I about ran off the road laughing at it.

Floyd Robertson wrote:

Jake from State Farm wrote:

I saw a big sign in someone's front yard the day after Trump was found responsible for sexual assault. It read "Moral Americans for Trump" I about ran off the road laughing at it.

So get this, Trump says if re-elected to the White House he would issue an executive order on "day one" to against citizenship by birth. I guess Trump is a better Christian than he is a student of the 14th amendment.

Jake from State Farm wrote:
I saw a big sign in someone's front yard the day after Trump was found responsible for sexual assault. It read "Moral Americans for Trump" I about ran off the road laughing at it.

Floyd Robertson wrote:

Jake from State Farm wrote:

I saw a big sign in someone's front yard the day after Trump was found responsible for sexual assault. It read "Moral Americans for Trump" I about ran off the road laughing at it.

So get this, Trump says if re-elected to the White House he would issue an executive order on "day one" to against citizenship by birth. I guess Trump is a better Christian than he is a student of the 14th amendment.

TP wrote:Listing the possibles in order with strikeouts for ones not in the running & bold for those declared.

Democratic:
1 - Joe Biden

26 - Marianne Williamson
27 - Robert F Kennedy Jr
9 - Stacey Abrams
12 - Maryland Governor Wes Moore
15 - Colorado Governor Jared Polis
16 - North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
18 - New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy
19 - Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
21 - Ex - Montana Governor Steve Bullock
23 - Ex - Judge Cheri Beasley
25 - Gina Raimondo
1 - Vice President Kamala Harris
2 - California Governor Gavin Newsom
3 - Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
4 - Senator Bernie Sanders
5 - Senator Elizabeth Warren
6 - Senator Raphael Warnock
7 - Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
8 - Beto O’Rourke
10 - Senator Cory Booker
11 - Senator Amy Klobuchar
13 - Senator Mark Kelly
14 - Senator Tammy Baldwin
17 - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
20 - Rep. Tim Ryan
22 - Senator John Fetterman
24 - US House Representative Ro Khanna
My guess is that we can probably strike out most of the Democratic possibles on the list now that Biden has announced.

Republican:
1 - Donald Trump

1a - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
2 - Ex-VP Mike Pence
3 - Ex Governor Nikki Haley
9 - Ex Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson
13 - Senator Tim Scott
14 - Ex New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
17 - Larry Elder
18 - Vivek Ramaswamy
4 - Georgia Governor Brian Kemp
5 - Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin
7 - South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem
8 - Ex Maryland Governor Larry Hogan
11 - Senator Ted Cruz
12 - Senator Marco Rubio
15 - John Bolton
16 - Ex US Representative Liz Cheney
6 - New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu
10 - Mike Pompeo

No-Lable Party:

1) - Joe Manchin?
2) - Joe Lieberman?
3) - Liz Cheney?[/b]

Ron DeSantis has a problem. No matter how hard he tries to kill off The [“woke” Black] Little Mermaid by taking down the company that brought her to life, it’s not going to help him beat Donald Trump in the GOP primary.

Nobody in the Republican Party, in fact, can successfully “run to the right of Trump” because Trump is running as an open fascist. And the only thing to the right of an open fascist is a total dictator who has utterly shattered even the façade of fascist democracy (remember that Putin and many other modern autocrats were “elected” repeatedly).

Trapper Gus wrote:[tw]1666254810897588224[/tw]

Current Republican Hopefuls

TP wrote:Listing the possibles in order with strikeouts for ones not in the running & bold for those declared.

Democratic:
1 - Joe Biden

26 - Marianne Williamson
27 - Robert F Kennedy Jr
9 - Stacey Abrams
12 - Maryland Governor Wes Moore
15 - Colorado Governor Jared Polis
16 - North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
18 - New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy
19 - Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
21 - Ex - Montana Governor Steve Bullock
23 - Ex - Judge Cheri Beasley
25 - Gina Raimondo
1 - Vice President Kamala Harris
2 - California Governor Gavin Newsom
3 - Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
4 - Senator Bernie Sanders
5 - Senator Elizabeth Warren
6 - Senator Raphael Warnock
7 - Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
8 - Beto O’Rourke
10 - Senator Cory Booker
11 - Senator Amy Klobuchar
13 - Senator Mark Kelly
14 - Senator Tammy Baldwin
17 - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
20 - Rep. Tim Ryan
22 - Senator John Fetterman
24 - US House Representative Ro Khanna
My guess is that we can probably strike out most of the Democratic possibles on the list now that Biden has announced.

Republican:
1 - Donald Trump

1a - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
2 - Ex-VP Mike Pence
3 - Ex Governor Nikki Haley
9 - Ex Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson
13 - Senator Tim Scott
14 - Ex New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
17 - Larry Elder
18 - Vivek Ramaswamy
ND - North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum
4 - Georgia Governor Brian Kemp
5 - Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin
7 - South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem
8 - Ex Maryland Governor Larry Hogan
11 - Senator Ted Cruz
12 - Senator Marco Rubio
15 - John Bolton
16 - Ex US Representative Liz Cheney
6 - New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu
10 - Mike Pompeo

No-Lable Party:

1) - Joe Manchin?
2) - Joe Lieberman?
3) - Liz Cheney?

DK wrote:
Two Republicans made their presidential primary campaigns official on Wednesday, and while one is a much bigger name than the other, chances are their polling numbers won’t be too different.  The only surprise about Mike Pence officially launching his presidential campaign is that he hadn’t already done it. (Raise your hand if you thought he had.) On the other hand, there’s North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, whose entry into the race merits a giant “who?”

Just seven months after the last election, the brief respite from political ads may be over for residents of swing districts in Michigan.

On Tuesday, the Michigan Democratic Party announced a six-figure ad purchase targeting six southeast Michigan Republican representatives in competitive seats in 2024. Meanwhile, the House Republican Campaign Committee tapped former Gov. Rick Snyder to help lead fundraising efforts for the caucus along with Kalamazoo businessman Bill Parfet.

Last fall, Michigan voters approved a wide-ranging overhaul of election rules, paving the way for early voting, expanded absentee voting options and a slew of other changes.

Now, the Democratic-majority Legislature is working on implementing the changes into law.

Proposal 2 amended the state constitution to allow nine days of early voting, making Michigan one of two dozen states allowing the practice. The proposal permits private funds for election administration, requires state-funded absentee ballot boxes and continues to allow registered voters to vote without an ID as long as they sign an affidavit.

Were it not for his illustrious name, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. would be just another crackpot in the growing number of bottom-feeding right-wing fringe politicians seeking high office.

But the Robert F. Kennedy brand is political gold.

RFK Jr. is now polling in the double digits against Biden. The latest CNN poll, taken less than three weeks ago, has him at 20 percent.

I’m reading the historian Gary Gerstle’s The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order. It includes about a seven-page discussion of Trump and Trumpism that is among the most incisive and comprehensive distillations of his worldview and appeal that I’ve seen.

Gerstle begins by noting that in spite of Trump’s famous shapeshifting political stances over his long years in public life (on abortion, for example), he has long held three core beliefs:

1) “he had never embraced the neoliberal promise of a world without borders….He did not believe in the virtues of free trade. Even the best rules of fair competition…would fail to restrain power hungry countries, corporations, or individuals (like himself) from pursuing advantage by whatever means necessary.” Only “smart dealmakers acting in their own self-interest” could achieve good results. He always rejected NAFTA, and the WTO, maintaining suspicion of any dealings with Mexico or China.

2) “Trump had always been an ethnonationalist who believed America’s destiny was to be a white man’s country. Like his father, he held that the best of people America were those of European descent.” Dating to his loud calls to reinstate the death penalty after the “Central Park Five” were accused of raping a white female jogger in Central Park in 1989, Trump saw it as his “mission to guard white America against ‘dangerous’ and ‘upstart’ minority populations.” His hatred of Obama, including his pursuit of the absurd “birther” theory, stemmed in significant part from these beliefs. So, of course, did his rabid hostility to nonwhite immigrants, the issue with which he launched his campaign for the presidency in 2015.

3) “Trump’s third longstanding belief was, in some respects, the most surprising one to find in a New York City billionaire: that America’s good, white people had to take back the country from a cosmopolitan elite intent on selling it out.”

As Gerstle describes (drawing on the work of others), Trump’s style, as a TV personality, a campaigner and as president, has owed as much as anything to the “bombastic performance art” characteristic of pro wrestling. Trump cultivated his image to mirror the “aggressive world of staged male combat, a world always teetering - tantalizingly, in the view of many supporters - on the edge of violence.” While “effeminate,” “cosmopolitan” “multicultural” coastal elites became “obsessed with micro-aggressions,” Trump’s supporters “delighted in the performance of extravagant macro-aggressions.” The pro wrestling ethos that Trump brought to national politics valorized an “unapologetic will to power” and the notion that sheer dominance of opponents by any means, fair or foul, was to be celebrated.

Trump’s clownish bombast, his incessant name-calling, his delight in playing to the worst instincts of worked up and bloodthirsty crowds, the way he has reveled in playing the “heel,” - all of this mimics the world that Vince McMahon, wrestling’s master promoter, turned into marketing gold.

In doing so, Trump rejected a core element of the old GOP. ...

Trump, by contrast, according to Gerstle, “regarded this GOP moralizing as both boring and out of touch with the real world….[Trump] was more interested in thrills and power than in integrity and discipline.” Trump supported deregulation, but not because he thought that free markets were virtuous institutions capable of instilling [in participants] ethical behavior." Instead, for Trump, markets were “built for manipulation, contracts were made to be broken,” and deregulation made that easier. (Trump is in many respects is a truth seer -TG)

All of the above provides a roadmap for understanding Trumpism generally, and for making sense specifically of Trump’s motives and behavior as he insisted that a coup be carried out on his behalf. Some have wondered whether Trump “knew” what he insisted on was wrong, or whether he was deluded into really believing that the election had been stolen out from under him. But such questions presume that Trump possesses a normal mind as well as a set of life experiences that ordinary people could even conceivably relate to.

In fact, however, Trump has lived in a cocoon of astonishing privilege and insularity and has never experienced accountability for any of his endless ethical and criminal transgressions. That life experience has reinforced the lack of conscience that is surely a family inheritance. For Trump, there’s no reason to differentiate fact from fiction. All that matters is what serves his purposes at any given moment. Neither circumstantially nor characterologically has Trump ever been compelled to think otherwise. That includes having any moral compunction about inciting mobs to kill people. The only sensations he would likely have felt about his actions on January 6 were the titillation he surely derives from having such power and the fury he experiences whenever he doesn’t get his way.

This isn’t a movement that has a shot at redemption. It’s long past time to stop begging Republicans to “finally” “speak out” against Trump and his criminal behavior. The right has shown us time and time again that far from being appalled by what Trump keeps getting caught doing red-handed, they actually like it. From Mitch McConnell at the top to the mouth-breathing MAGA supporter tweeting out his frustrations or yelling on the street corner, they are all in.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:as amazing as Biden has been - the most accomplished US president in my (almost) 54 years on the planet - I'm still not convinced he'll be the nominee come next November.

no idea what makes me say that, no idea how an event like this might transpire.. it's just a feeling I have.

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez - He wisely avoided questions about his rumored entry into the 2024 GOP presidential primary, which he’s supposed to announce Thursday.

TP wrote:Listing the possibles in order with strikeouts for ones not in the running & bold for those declared.

Democratic:
1 - Joe Biden

26 - Marianne Williamson
27 - Robert F Kennedy Jr
9 - Stacey Abrams
12 - Maryland Governor Wes Moore
15 - Colorado Governor Jared Polis
16 - North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
18 - New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy
19 - Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
21 - Ex - Montana Governor Steve Bullock
23 - Ex - Judge Cheri Beasley
25 - Gina Raimondo
1 - Vice President Kamala Harris
2 - California Governor Gavin Newsom
3 - Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
4 - Senator Bernie Sanders
5 - Senator Elizabeth Warren
6 - Senator Raphael Warnock
7 - Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
8 - Beto O’Rourke
10 - Senator Cory Booker
11 - Senator Amy Klobuchar
13 - Senator Mark Kelly
14 - Senator Tammy Baldwin
17 - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
20 - Rep. Tim Ryan
22 - Senator John Fetterman
24 - US House Representative Ro Khanna
My guess is that we can probably strike out most of the Democratic possibles on the list now that Biden has announced.

Republican:
1 - Donald Trump

1a - Florida Governor Ron DeSantis
2 - Ex-VP Mike Pence
3 - Ex Governor Nikki Haley
9 - Ex Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson
13 - Senator Tim Scott
14 - Ex New Jersey Governor Chris Christie
17 - Larry Elder
18 - Vivek Ramaswamy
ND - North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum
ND - Miami Mayor Francis Suarez
4 - Georgia Governor Brian Kemp
5 - Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin
7 - South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem
8 - Ex Maryland Governor Larry Hogan
11 - Senator Ted Cruz
12 - Senator Marco Rubio
15 - John Bolton
16 - Ex US Representative Liz Cheney
6 - New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu
10 - Mike Pompeo

No-Lable Party:

1) - Joe Manchin?
2) - Joe Lieberman?
3) - Liz Cheney?

Trapper Gus wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:as amazing as Biden has been - the most accomplished US president in my (almost) 54 years on the planet - I'm still not convinced he'll be the nominee come next November.

no idea what makes me say that, no idea how an event like this might transpire.. it's just a feeling I have.

I'm pretty sure LBJ had large majority.

Can think of only one reason he wouldn't be & I don't want to think those thoughts.

You are correct, overall, in your lifetime I would rate him as by far the best.

With a few more years than you I include him in my top 4 of Ike, JFK, LBJ & Joe.

He is slightly above LBJ because of Nam, though LBJ did a bunch of domestic progressive shit, such as voters rights, Medicare, Medicaid & war on poverty. JKF gets an incomplete, but by far the best orator of my lifetime, Ike really "got it" as a President of all the people and kept us out of wars, a great leader. On Joe will need to wait until he is finished to really decide where he ends up. With some more progressive progress in his second term, and no US wars, I probably will have Ike & Joe tied for first.

Spartytruth wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:


Can think of only one reason he wouldn't be & I don't want to think those thoughts.

You are correct, overall, in your lifetime I would rate him as by far the best.

With a few more years than you I include him in my top 4 of Ike, JFK, LBJ & Joe.

He is slightly above LBJ because of Nam, though LBJ did a bunch of domestic progressive shit, such as voters rights, Medicare, Medicaid & war on poverty.  JKF gets an incomplete, but by far the best orator of my lifetime, Ike really "got it" as a President of all the people and kept us out of wars, a great leader.  On Joe will need to wait until he is finished to really decide where he ends up.  With some more progressive progress in his second term, and no US wars, I probably will have Ike & Joe tied for first.

I'm pretty sure LBJ had large majority.

Cameron wrote:I don't think casting Harris as the prohibitive favorite is accurate. Maybe the Dem establishment views her that way, but the voters don't.

TravelinMan wrote:

Cameron wrote:I don't think casting Harris as the prohibitive favorite is accurate. Maybe the Dem establishment views her that way, but the voters don't.

Yeah, but who else would they pick?  Newsome?  

Trapper Gus wrote:

TravelinMan wrote:

Yeah, but who else would they pick?  Newsome?  

There are several govenors and of course Senator Sanders, there is a list in this thread.

TravelinMan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

There are several govenors and of course Senator Sanders, there is a list in this thread.

Dems: "Wow, people are really worried that Biden is too old to run for President. What ae we going to do?"

Also Dems: "How about Bernie Sanders?"

Trapper Gus wrote:

TravelinMan wrote:

Dems: "Wow, people are really worried that Biden is too old to run for President.  What ae we going to do?"

Also Dems:  "How about Bernie Sanders?"

Since Penn isn't posting very often on this board it falls to me to tell you that Senator Sanders is not personally popular with about 60% of the Dems, who rightly blame him for Clinton's loss.

TravelinMan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Since Penn isn't posting very often on this board it falls to me to tell you that Senator Sanders is not personally popular with about 60% of the Dems, who rightly blame him for Clinton's loss.

Ha!  I remember from TOB how much Penn hated the Bernie Bros.  Good times. You say he still occasionally posts here? That's great. Can't wait to hear from him. He was a homophobic little SOB, but he was interesting.

Still.  The dude is older than Biden.  I suppose you could argue general health and cognitive ability, but still.... I don't think he's gonna work.

Realistically, it seems like the Biden replacement leaders would be Kamala, Newsom, and maybe Buttigieg.  None of them seem as strong as the idea of Biden, if not the actual in place Biden.

I think Dems need to pray that they don't throw Trump in jail and that he's the Rep. candidate, and keep doing the Weekend at Bernie's thing with Biden.

Democratic:
1 - Joe Biden

26 - Marianne Williamson
27 - Robert F Kennedy Jr
9 - Stacey Abrams
12 - Maryland Governor Wes Moore
15 - Colorado Governor Jared Polis
16 - North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
18 - New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy
19 - Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
21 - Ex - Montana Governor Steve Bullock
23 - Ex - Judge Cheri Beasley
25 - Gina Raimondo
1 - Vice President Kamala Harris
2 - California Governor Gavin Newsom
3 - Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
4 - Senator Bernie Sanders
5 - Senator Elizabeth Warren
6 - Senator Raphael Warnock
7 - Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
8 - Beto O’Rourke
10 - Senator Cory Booker
11 - Senator Amy Klobuchar
13 - Senator Mark Kelly
14 - Senator Tammy Baldwin
17 - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
20 - Rep. Tim Ryan
22 - Senator John Fetterman
24 - US House Representative Ro Khanna

Trapper Gus wrote:

TravelinMan wrote:

Ha!  I remember from TOB how much Penn hated the Bernie Bros.  Good times.  You say he still occasionally posts here?  That's great.  Can't wait to hear from him.  He was a homophobic little SOB, but he was interesting.

Still.  The dude is older than Biden.  I suppose you could argue general health and cognitive ability, but still.... I don't think he's gonna work.

Realistically, it seems like the Biden replacement leaders would be Kamala, Newsom, and maybe Buttigieg.  None of them seem as strong as the idea of Biden, if not the actual in place Biden.

I think Dems need to pray that they don't throw Trump in jail and that he's the Rep. candidate, and keep doing the Weekend at Bernie's thing with Biden.

Penn stopped posting because of incorrect slurs on his character like to one you just posted.

There is a huge difference between language and beliefs, and an even larger difference between Penn trying to use sarcasm and other posters ignoring that.

Democratic:
1 - Joe Biden

26 - Marianne Williamson
27 - Robert F Kennedy Jr
9 - Stacey Abrams
12 - Maryland Governor Wes Moore
15 - Colorado Governor Jared Polis
16 - North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper
18 - New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy
19 - Illinois Governor JB Pritzker
21 - Ex - Montana Governor Steve Bullock
23 - Ex - Judge Cheri Beasley
25 - Gina Raimondo
1 - Vice President Kamala Harris
2 - California Governor Gavin Newsom
3 - Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer
4 - Senator Bernie Sanders
5 - Senator Elizabeth Warren
6 - Senator Raphael Warnock
7 - Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg
8 - Beto O’Rourke
10 - Senator Cory Booker
11 - Senator Amy Klobuchar
13 - Senator Mark Kelly
14 - Senator Tammy Baldwin
17 - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro
20 - Rep. Tim Ryan
22 - Senator John Fetterman
24 - US House Representative Ro Khanna

After Harris: Newson would draw some interest, so would Whitmer, Polis, Murphy, Pritzker ... most of the names on the list to some extent.

TravelinMan wrote:

Trapper Gus wrote:

Penn stopped posting because of incorrect slurs on his character like to one you just posted.

There is a huge difference between language and beliefs, and an even larger difference between Penn trying to use sarcasm and other posters ignoring that.



After Harris: Newson would draw some interest, so would Whitmer, Polis, Murphy, Pritzker ... most of the names on the list to some extent.

Well, not to rehash old times, but yeah, Penn definitely had some "antiquated" opinions about the LGBTQ community.  That's all the further I'll say on that.

I'd love Big Gretch to run, but I assume she's not quite ready yet.  Maybe a 2028/2032 leader?

Edit: Leaving because people were making up lies about you? How weak.

I’ve been writing recently about the corrupt monstrosity that is the “No Labels” third party effort and the way the insider sheets in DC persist in labeling this an action on behalf of centrists. It is in fact a lifestyle front group run by the husband and wife team of Mark Penn and Nancy Jacobson, some of the most retrograde players from the dark side of American politics. The effort is funded by a who’s who of right-wing Republicans