Re: Hurricane Irma

by **Heat Miser** 2017-09-08, 18:48

FYI...95 is clear to Daytona.

by **tTy** 2017-09-08, 18:55

Just got this info from a friend of mine in case anyone is still considering options...

+++++++++++

here is a snap shot for getting out of Dodge from Mel FBO is FIxed Base Operation afa private airport
PC 12 is the Pilatus turbo prop AOPA is the Pilots association

Mel
I don't "know" anyone operating down there...

BUT,

I just ran the numbers on using jets for MIA and MCO for departures to STL and DFW....it worked out to $1,300 to $1,666./seat.

So....what I'd do is get them onto Eljet at: http://www.ellejet.com/tools.php

AND...They should try and assemble as large a group willing to go to the same place up north to spread the costs..BEFORE they call this place... They are Brokers, but have deep resources... ie: know where different birds are sitting and waiting for a flight order... I'd suggest they look at a PC-12 load OR even a Westwind/older lear at the $2K per hour price point...they need to aim for Jackson, MI I'd think...closest/shortest flight time, gets them "behind" and "below" the beast...nothing to the "north" does this close in/short miles...I looked at STL/DFW for this same reasoning...

Where can they get to for pick up?...MIA is NOT a good choice...Orlando is much better today/tonight...

Other, small fields are very usable too...depends on the acft used...

There is also a chance they could call AOPA HQ up in MD...ask for the flight planning department...ask them for some names and numbers of FBO's operating recip SEL, like C-210 or PA-30 some place in MI/LA/East EX/OK/AR area... it is about an 800 mil run down into MCO +/- ... say 4hr one way and the same return... these can hold 6 people max, and 2 should be short people!..but, around $400/hr should cover such birds.. 5 seats paying, 8 hr round trip...is only like $500/seat or so...

Sorry, this is the best I can do at this late date...

by **The Pantry** 2017-09-08, 19:21

Heat Miser wrote:FYI...95 is clear to Daytona.

Daytona and north up to Jacksonville are starting to look like the most favorable places to be in FL.

A friend and his family lived in the Miami area for 20 years before buying a place in Hernando Beach a few months ago. Was on a business trip and finally got back home today to button things up...putting the shutters up tomorrow.

The Gulf coast looks like it's gonna get hammered worse than Charlie in 2004.

by **tGreenWay** 2017-09-08, 19:26

The Pantry wrote:
tGreenWay wrote:Props to the European model for once again nailing the path almost perfectly. As is too often the case, the American model was an also-ran.
??? The European model had the thing turning north sooner so the storm would have stayed in the Atlantic.

I believe you are mistaken. That was the American model.

by **Floyd Robertson** 2017-09-08, 19:28

Wrong thread...

by **tGreenWay** 2017-09-08, 19:37

Floyd Robertson wrote:Wrong thread...

Oops. Still an interesting article, and by interesting, I mean maddening.

by **The Pantry** 2017-09-08, 19:54

tGreenWay wrote:
The Pantry wrote:
??? The European model had the thing turning north sooner so the storm would have stayed in the Atlantic.

I believe you are mistaken. That was the American model.

Hard for either the European or US models to be wrong with both offering multiple models. The only European model I previously saw was the Atlantic side path in this pic

Hurricane Irma - Page 6 Europe10

by **WhiteBoyHatcher** 2017-09-08, 23:30

Winds are picking up again. back up to 160 sustained. Shifting west a bit. Now worried about my work peeps more than you message boardings folks. Our office is in an evac zone and they put an auto response on all ~ 800 employees emails that the office is closed on Monday with a support # for clients.

by **MiamiSpartan** 2017-09-08, 23:33

Well, Miami is now outside of the cone of death, but just barely. If it came up the right side of the cone, we'd still get our ass beat. We still are probably going to get winds that are equivalent to a Cat 1 or Cat 2, but 24 hours ago, we were looking certain to get Cat 4-5 winds. It's a very weird feeling to be hopeful that we will get Cat 1-2 level winds. What a monstrous bitch Irma is to make that a good scenario.

I feel for the folks on the Gulf coast, though. The longer it keeps going West before turning North, the better for them.

by **WhiteBoyHatcher** 2017-09-08, 23:41

We'll see how they look in the morning. Just know that Bob will be praying for you all in case he hasn't already told you 18 times.

by **Travis of the Cosmos** 2017-09-08, 23:53

Thoughts and prayers for everyone in Florida and also in the islands and stuff too but focused thoughts, and prayers, on Florida. I like to weigh my thoughts and prayers just to make sure that God knows that 90% of my thoughts and prayers are targeted at those of you in Florida and 10% towards those people elsewhere. I wouldn't want those thoughts and prayers getting sent somewhere they shouldn't be.

I mean, looks it'd be easy for me to say "thoughts and prayers for everybody impacted" but then you have to share my thoughts and prayers. I just want to make sure that God knows that my thoughts and prayers are not equal for everybody. It's important.

Bob is probably gone for the the weekend but i believe he echoes my sentiment. Maybe slight different weighting on his thoughts and prayers. I'm not sure.

by **kingstonlake** 2017-09-09, 01:43

Use to live in Naples. Still have many friends there. Most all are riding it out.

by **tGreenWay** 2017-09-09, 02:36

kingstonlake wrote:Use to live in Naples. Still have many friends there. Most all are riding it out.

Naples should be the plural of nipples. Hurricane Irma - Page 6 1494614055

by **tTy** 2017-09-09, 03:00

This is kinda cool.

by **The Pantry** 2017-09-09, 05:48

Looking at the vid Weather Channel is showing of Irma's actual path it is bouncing along Cuba. Sorta looks like it might just blow through the Florida Straits and out into the Gulf instead of turning north.

by **DWags** 2017-09-09, 07:05

The Pantry wrote:Looking at the vid Weather Channel is showing of Irma's actual path it is bouncing along Cuba. Sorta looks like it might just blow through the Florida Straits and out into the Gulf instead of turning north.

That would be the best possible outcome.

by **The Pantry** 2017-09-09, 07:46

DWags wrote:
The Pantry wrote:Looking at the vid Weather Channel is showing of Irma's actual path it is bouncing along Cuba. Sorta looks like it might just blow through the Florida Straits and out into the Gulf instead of turning north.

That would be the best possible outcome.

Would be great for Florida but the thing would pick up strength again and slam somewhere else

by **NigelUno** 2017-09-09, 08:10

I think it's headed for the Krispy Kreme on Ponce.

by **InTenSity** 2017-09-09, 11:42

Fuck. Just called a guy I used to buy from. His daughter is still in Naples. I told him to talk her into coming over here. I really don't think Naples is equipped to deal with this.

by **InTenSity** 2017-09-09, 11:53

She's staying somewhere that has impact windows, so should be ok and is about 10 miles inland, so should be out of the surge area's.

Another tidbit, produce prices is going to be expensive this winter.

by **I.B. Fine** 2017-09-09, 11:58

My 80+ year old father and his wife are intent to ride it out in Ft. Myers, despite the hounding of all their children to bug out. Wasn't so big a deal a couple days ago when it looked like Miami was toast, but now they are dead center.
Basically live in a swamp at the mouth of the Caloosahatchee River, I think he's 10' above sea level.
I told him he better have a step ladder under the attic access for when the water starts coming in and hope the roof is still there. Hurricane Irma - Page 6 294152859

by **InTenSity** 2017-09-09, 12:03

I.B. Fine wrote:

My 80+ year old father and his wife are intent to ride it out in Ft. Myers, despite the hounding of all their children to bug out. Wasn't so big a deal a couple days ago when it looked like Miami was toast, but now they are dead center.
Basically live in a swamp at the mouth of the Caloosahatchee River, I think he's 10' above sea level.
I told him he better have a step ladder under the attic access for when the water starts coming in and hope the roof is still there.

He should really go inland if he can. I wish him good luck, they are readjusting the surge level on the west side of the state, he shouldn't be near any rivers or the Gulf. Do anything you can to get him to move.

by **I.B. Fine** 2017-09-09, 12:06

InTenSity wrote:
I.B. Fine wrote:

My 80+ year old father and his wife are intent to ride it out in Ft. Myers, despite the hounding of all their children to bug out. Wasn't so big a deal a couple days ago when it looked like Miami was toast, but now they are dead center.
Basically live in a swamp at the mouth of the Caloosahatchee River, I think he's 10' above sea level.
I told him he better have a step ladder under the attic access for when the water starts coming in and hope the roof is still there.
He should really go inland if he can. I wish him good luck, they are readjusting the surge level on the west side of the state, he shouldn't be near any rivers or the Gulf. Do anything you can to get him to move.

6 grown children and many friends have been trying, have offers to stay at friends homes inland, but stubbornness runs strong in my family, common sense, not so much.
I think the house is pretty solid and in a somewhat protected area so it probably will take the wind, but he is underestimating the storm surge potential, I fear, and the inability to get anywhere if the shit hits the fan.

by **InTenSity** 2017-09-09, 12:09

I.B. Fine wrote:
InTenSity wrote:
He should really go inland if he can. I wish him good luck, they are readjusting the surge level on the west side of the state, he shouldn't be near any rivers or the Gulf. Do anything you can to get him to move.

6 grown children and many friends have been trying, have offers to stay at friends homes inland, but stubbornness runs strong in my family, common sense, not so much.
I think the house is pretty solid and in a somewhat protected area so it probably will take the wind, but he is underestimating the storm surge potential, I fear, and the inability to get anywhere if the shit hits the fan.

Florida Emergency Information Line -- 800-342-3557

The Florida Emergency Information Line (FEIL) is a toll-free hotline activated at the time of an emergency to provide an additional resource for those in Florida to receive accurate and up-to-date information regarding an emergency or disaster situation impacting the State of Florida.

FEIL line is currently activated and available 24 hours/7 days a week.

Call them. Explain the situation. Maybe they can still get someone out there to get him out.

by **InTenSity** 2017-09-09, 12:13

LEE 239-533-0622

That's the number for Lee County emergency.

by **I.B. Fine** 2017-09-09, 12:15

InTenSity wrote:
I.B. Fine wrote:

6 grown children and many friends have been trying, have offers to stay at friends homes inland, but stubbornness runs strong in my family, common sense, not so much.
I think the house is pretty solid and in a somewhat protected area so it probably will take the wind, but he is underestimating the storm surge potential, I fear, and the inability to get anywhere if the shit hits the fan.
Florida Emergency Information Line -- 800-342-3557

The Florida Emergency Information Line (FEIL) is a toll-free hotline activated at the time of an emergency to provide an additional resource for those in Florida to receive accurate and up-to-date information regarding an emergency or disaster situation impacting the State of Florida.

FEIL line is currently activated and available 24 hours/7 days a week.

Call them. Explain the situation. Maybe they can still get someone out there to get him out.

Appreciate the info, I'll pass it along. He is actually in great shape for his age and is perfectly capable of getting in his car and driving, but his mind is made up and I just hope the storm surge isn't more than 10', or just up to his floor level, which is still 3' above the garage floor.

by **I.B. Fine** 2017-09-09, 12:34

It's apparently raining like crazy in the Keys already. I was in Key West a couple years ago and it rained pretty hard for 1.5-2 hours and the water in the street between Sloppy Joe's and Captn Tony's was knee deep.
Throw in a little tidal surge and I can't imagine what this will be like.

by **The Pantry** 2017-09-09, 13:57

They are saying the surge could be 10-15 feet in the Naples and Ft. Myers areas.

by **InTenSity** 2017-09-09, 14:00

I was just watching a Key West webcam, there are some really fucking stupid people that this storm is going to get rid of.

by **tGreenWay** 2017-09-09, 15:19

InTenSity wrote:I was just watching a Key West webcam, there are some really fucking stupid people that this storm is going to get rid of.

Yep, the ol' surge and purge.

by **Floyd Robertson** 2017-09-09, 16:32

Miami.

by **InTenSity** 2017-09-09, 16:57

Feeder band. My concern now is the tornados.

by **The Pantry** 2017-09-09, 17:37

InTenSity wrote:I was just watching a Key West webcam, there are some really fucking stupid people that this storm is going to get rid of.

This is why it's a bad idea to stand at the southernmost point as a hurricane is approaching.

by **tGreenWay** 2017-09-09, 17:50

The Pantry wrote:
InTenSity wrote:I was just watching a Key West webcam, there are some really fucking stupid people that this storm is going to get rid of.

This is why it's a bad idea to stand at the southernmost point as a hurricane is approaching.

IIRC, that's not even the southernmost point. It's actually somewhere else nearby.

by **MiamiSpartan** 2017-09-09, 17:59

tGreenWay wrote:
The Pantry wrote:

This is why it's a bad idea to stand at the southernmost point as a hurricane is approaching.

IIRC, that's not even the southernmost point. It's actually somewhere else nearby.

Yeah, just to the West, it is further South, but that's a military base.

But "The Southernmost Point Accessible By Civilians" doesn't fit as nicely on t-shirts.

by **Floyd Robertson** 2017-09-09, 20:26

Check out this post-Irma video from the U.S.Virgin Islands.

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/906669462736265216

by **InTenSity** 2017-09-09, 20:45

I'm the blue dot. \./
Can someone edit the size if needed?

by **By-Tor** 2017-09-09, 20:52

How certain are they that this thing tracks north instead of northwest toward New Orleans? I'd be sleeping restless in the big easy

by **InTenSity** 2017-09-09, 20:54

By-Tor wrote:How certain are they that this thing tracks north instead of northwest toward New Orleans? I'd be sleeping restless in the big easy

at this point they're pretty certain it's going up Florida.

by **tGreenWay** 2017-09-09, 21:04

MiamiSpartan wrote:
tGreenWay wrote:

IIRC, that's not even the southernmost point. It's actually somewhere else nearby.
Yeah, just to the West, it is further South, but that's a military base.

But "The Southernmost Point Accessible By Civilians" doesn't fit as nicely on t-shirts.

The alternative would be just as long but kinda cool. "I got thrown in the brig at the real southernmost point."

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