Hurricane Irma

Travis of the Cosmos wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:
so you're saying it's always too soon..?  

maybe I should just stick with my sports analysis and commentary.

Sometimes it's too soon other times it's too late. Which if my math is right happened 3 days ago.

your coefficients are so efficient that they don't quite add up.. in a very antihomologous way.

InTenSity wrote:

The Pantry wrote:Unless your wife has a guarantee from her employer that you and your kids can stay at the hospital, your best bet is to let her do her job and you get your kids out of there. As Nigel suggested, Valdosta might be a good place if you can still get a room there.

We can stay at the hospital, but only us, her brother and his family can't. It is limited to children and spouses only. I believe we would have a place to sleep and food while there. I'd love for us to be able to put both kids on the plane and have my parents pick them up, but my son is too young to travel alone, according to the rules. I'll decide tomorrow.

Looks to be dropping to a Cat 4/3 by the time it hits Florida. I'd still book a room on Saturday (that you can cancel) somewhere just in case. Try hotels.com. Gainesville and Valdosta are tough for Saturday. Try Tallahassee.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:I'll keep everyone in my thoughts and prayers.

I need a list of Florida based Swillsters before I can categorically say everyone.

Wally Fairway wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:I'll keep everyone in my thoughts and prayers.

I need a list of Florida based Swillsters before I can categorically say everyone.

we should have that on a spreadsheet somewhere..

NigelUno wrote:

InTenSity wrote:
We can stay at the hospital, but only us, her brother and his family can't. It is limited to children and spouses only. I believe we would have a place to sleep and food while there. I'd love for us to be able to put both kids on the plane and have my parents pick them up, but my son is too young to travel alone, according to the rules. I'll decide tomorrow.

Looks to be dropping to a Cat 4/3 by the time it hits Florida. I'd still book a room on Saturday (that you can cancel) somewhere just in case. Try hotels.com. Gainesville and Valdosta are tough for Saturday. Try Tallahassee.

FSU is at home. OTOH, they may have people bailing on their game against LA Monroe, and have places open up. But I would tend to think that a 7 hour drive (probably even longer in the next couple of days) with a major gas shortage could pose bigger problems.

Intensity, you've got a great option with the hospital, better than 99% of the folks down here. Those places are built better than any other buildings around. Your house should be fine, as well, but the hospital is like a bunker. And it would probably isulate you from the noise more, which could be scary for the kids.

The forecasts are kind of weird right now. The cone has a wide range, with the middle going straight up the pee hole of this penis-shaped state. But most of the spaghetti models are predicting it to graze coast of Miami or stay off shore, some even East of the Bahamas.

We are ready as far as purchases. Got gas between 1-2am. My wife and her mother had been out looking for water, and when they came back, one of the gas stations at the corner was getting a delivery (both had run out earlier). Despite being about 1:30am, it still took a good 20-30 minutes to get through the line. Madness. My BIL said they mentioned that station on Channel 10 this morning as gas, soo if you had trouble getting out to 75 this morning, blame Channel 10.

MiamiSpartan wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

Looks to be dropping to a Cat 4/3 by the time it hits Florida. I'd still book a room on Saturday (that you can cancel) somewhere just in case. Try hotels.com. Gainesville and Valdosta are tough for Saturday. Try Tallahassee.

FSU is at home. OTOH, they may have people bailing on their game against LA Monroe, and have places open up. But I would tend to think that a 7 hour drive (probably even longer in the next couple of days) with a major gas shortage could pose bigger problems.

Intensity, you've got a great option with the hospital, better than 99% of the folks down here. Those places are built better than any other buildings around. Your house should be fine, as well, but the hospital is like a bunker. And it would probably isulate you from the noise more, which could be scary for the kids.

The forecasts are kind of weird right now. The cone has a wide range, with the middle going straight up the pee hole of this penis-shaped state. But most of the spaghetti models are predicting it to graze coast of Miami or stay off shore, some even East of the Bahamas.

We are ready as far as purchases. Got gas between 1-2am. My wife and her mother had been out looking for water, and when they came back, one of the gas stations at the corner was getting a delivery (both had run out earlier). Despite being about 1:30am, it still took a good 20-30 minutes to get through the line. Madness. My BIL said they mentioned that station on Channel 10 this morning as gas, soo if you had trouble getting out to 75 this morning, blame Channel 10.

A hospital might be the best place to stay. I would imagine they've got plenty of supplies.

Sorry if already mentioned (I half-assed looked). Miami/Arky State game already canceled because of Irma, and it was to be played in Arkansas.

MiamiSpartan wrote:

NigelUno wrote:

Looks to be dropping to a Cat 4/3 by the time it hits Florida. I'd still book a room on Saturday (that you can cancel) somewhere just in case. Try hotels.com. Gainesville and Valdosta are tough for Saturday. Try Tallahassee.

FSU is at home. OTOH, they may have people bailing on their game against LA Monroe, and have places open up. But I would tend to think that a 7 hour drive (probably even longer in the next couple of days) with a major gas shortage could pose bigger problems.

Intensity, you've got a great option with the hospital, better than 99% of the folks down here. Those places are built better than any other buildings around. Your house should be fine, as well, but the hospital is like a bunker. And it would probably isulate you from the noise more, which could be scary for the kids.

The forecasts are kind of weird right now. The cone has a wide range, with the middle going straight up the pee hole of this penis-shaped state. But most of the spaghetti models are predicting it to graze coast of Miami or stay off shore, some even East of the Bahamas.

We are ready as far as purchases. Got gas between 1-2am. My wife and her mother had been out looking for water, and when they came back, one of the gas stations at the corner was getting a delivery (both had run out earlier). Despite being about 1:30am, it still took a good 20-30 minutes to get through the line. Madness. My BIL said they mentioned that station on Channel 10 this morning as gas, soo if you had trouble getting out to 75 this morning, blame Channel 10.

Well only one of the stations had gas and the line was stupid. I wondered what happened, went around the other way to get out, even that took a little bit. I'm thinking hospital if its going to be a direct hit, if we're going to not be directly impacted, I'll probably stay home with my wife's family. In the last 2 days each time the models come out they shift it back the other way. We'll see what the 11am advisory says.

Updated path model now focusing on the east.

St. Barth

gHost Spartan wrote:Haven't had a chance to read through this entire thread but are there a lot of people actually leaving Florida right now? Are the freeways packed with cars? How are people evaluating from the Keys? Where are they going? Is there anyplace safe in Florida?

gHost Spartan wrote:Haven't had a chance to read through this entire thread but are there a lot of people actually leaving Florida right now? Are the freeways packed with cars? How are people evaluating from the Keys? Where are they going? Is there anyplace safe in Florida?

just do like me - and keep them in your thoughts and prayers.

gHost Spartan wrote:Haven't had a chance to read through this entire thread but are there a lot of people actually leaving Florida right now? Are the freeways packed with cars? How are people evaluating from the Keys? Where are they going? Is there anyplace safe in Florida?

No, the highways aren't packed, at least not yet. It's still a couple of days before we start getting outer bands. Most people are still working. Or took off work to sit in gas lines/water lines. Schools are closed starting tomorrow in South Florida (Keys schools closed today), so Thursday and Friday, if people are going to leave, that's when they'll leave. Maybe a day later in the central or northern part of the state.

When people evacuate the Keys, where they go depends on the person. Some of have family/friends to stay with somewhere. Shelters in Southeast and Southwest Florida also can take them. There are quire a few schools that are built tougher, and that can be battened down, that are shelters for people that don't want to stay in their homes. What sucks about evacuating the keys is that there's one road in, and one road out. Much of it is just one lane in both directions.

But while the entire state is in the cone of death, that doesn't mean that no place will be safe. When they show this storm as 700 miles wide on the satellite, and that there are 180 mph winds, that doesn't mean that 180mph winds are stretching over 700 miles. In fact, that's really the peak winds, at the worst part, which is the eye wall. Currently, the eye is about 35 miles wide, IIRC. From there wind speeds get less as you go further out from the center. The way this is set to go up along or through the state, does make it harder to bug out than most storms would. Even if it goes up the East Coast, the West Coast will still get tropical storm force winds or worst case some Cat 1-2 hurricane winds. While not safe to be out surfing or sunbathing in that, it's relatively safe, if your house is up to code, if you have shutters, or if you're in a hotel or something.

gHost Spartan wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:just do like me - and keep them in your thoughts and prayers.

Honestly I find it deeply troubling - I can't imagine what it would be like to lose everything in a storm.

yeah it would suck.

which is why thoughts and prayers are so important.

Just spoke to a family member with a place on the west coast. If the worst case scenario happens, which is cat 5/4 heading for a Miami hit, I can use their place. Stopped in a Publix at lunch and it was crazy. I bet win dixie is fully stocked though.

So this how the local media says, "We have no fucking idea what's going to happen."

Seriously, though, this is an interesting graphic which says what kind of storm we'll feel in Miami, depending on the track it takes. Door #3 looks like the preferred option, as long as that's 50+ miles off the coast or so.

MiamiSpartan wrote:So this how the local media says, "We have no fucking idea what's going to happen."

Seriously, though, this is an interesting graphic which says what kind of storm we'll feel in Miami, depending on the track it takes. Door #3 looks like the preferred option, as long as that's 50+ miles off the coast or so.

I wouldn't mind bearing down on her land mass.

gHost Spartan wrote:

MiamiSpartan wrote:
No, the highways aren't packed, at least not yet. It's still a couple of days before we start getting outer bands. Most people are still working. Or took off work to sit in gas lines/water lines. Schools are closed starting tomorrow in South Florida (Keys schools closed today), so Thursday and Friday, if people are going to leave, that's when they'll leave. Maybe a day later in the central or northern part of the state.

When people evacuate the Keys, where they go depends on the person. Some of have family/friends to stay with somewhere. Shelters in Southeast and Southwest Florida also can take them. There are quire a few schools that are built tougher, and that can be battened down, that are shelters for people that don't want to stay in their homes. What sucks about evacuating the keys is that there's one road in, and one road out. Much of it is just one lane in both directions.

But while the entire state is in the cone of death, that doesn't mean that no place will be safe. When they show this storm as 700 miles wide on the satellite, and that there are 180 mph winds, that doesn't mean that 180mph winds are stretching over 700 miles. In fact, that's really the peak winds, at the worst part, which is the eye wall. Currently, the eye is about 35 miles wide, IIRC. From there wind speeds get less as you go further out from the center. The way this is set to go up along or through the state, does make it harder to bug out than most storms would. Even if it goes up the East Coast, the West Coast will still get tropical storm force winds or worst case some Cat 1-2 hurricane winds. While not safe to be out surfing or sunbathing in that, it's relatively safe, if your house is up to code, if you have shutters, or if you're in a hotel or something.

Are there flooding concerns inland?

Yeah, it's hit or miss inland. You don't have storm surge which can be bad, but flooding from rain can happen. Tje state is so flat with so many marsh/swamp areas, that heavy rain can always have the potential to cause localized flooding. They have a lot of man made canals, and they raise and lower the levels of those as needed (lowering the levels now to allow for more runoff and drainage). So that helps, but drainage backups, lower lying areas, etc., can cause flooding. It can be very random.

Some flooding will likely occur with Irma, but it's not expected to be widespread like Houston. The concern is with the wind since it's so powerful.

One gas station was over $7/gallon.

Seems kind of high.

NigelUno wrote:One gas station was over $7/gallon.

Seems kind of high.

ran by the Speedway at the corner of Lake Lansing and Abbot this morning.. gas was $2.79.

seemed kinda high to me - glad I don't own a car.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

NigelUno wrote:One gas station was over $7/gallon.

Seems kind of high.

ran by the Speedway at the corner of Lake Lansing and Abbot this morning.. gas was $2.79.

seemed kinda high to me - glad I don't own a car.

About the same down here. Water is cheap though.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

NigelUno wrote:One gas station was over $7/gallon.

Seems kind of high.

ran by the Speedway at the corner of Lake Lansing and Abbot this morning.. gas was $2.79.

seemed kinda high to me - glad I don't own a car.

That last hurricane screwed up the refineries in Michigan and Indiana and the oil pipelines from Canada, that's why the price of gas jumped 60 cents.

Robert J Sakimano wrote:

NigelUno wrote:One gas station was over $7/gallon.

Seems kind of high.

ran by the Speedway at the corner of Lake Lansing and Abbot this morning.. gas was $2.79.

seemed kinda high to me - glad I don't own a car.

Filled up at the Frandor Speedway on Tuesday night @ $2.50/gallon, then again last night @ $2.79/gallon. Fuckers.

gHost Spartan wrote:

Robert J Sakimano wrote:ran by the Speedway at the corner of Lake Lansing and Abbot this morning.. gas was $2.79.

seemed kinda high to me - glad I don't own a car.

I actually saw a guy riding a mountain bike through East Lansing after the Bowling Green game and immediately thought of you.

wasn't me - I was out of town.. plus, I generally don't ride a bike around East Lansing.

It's lookin bad y'all. Just checking out the models. My coworkers in Tampa are battening down the hatches. Stay safe Miami and InTen. Please keep us updated.

He does not post here and I'm not quite sure why you're so obsessed with him. Take it to the other board brah.

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:It's lookin bad y'all. Just checking out the models. My coworkers in Tampa are battening down the hatches. Stay safe Miami and InTen. Please keep us updated.

Just got off the phone with a buddy who works for the county. County will be in Alpha Bravo in the morning. Highest alert. He thinks they are bringing in cots and going to have to be there the whole time. He said he doesn't think its a good idea to go to Naples or Bradenton as the storm is large enough that they will probably have hurricane force winds and start evacuating anything west of 41 soon. He thinks the best bet is to stay here, or Montana.

They told me the highways in Tampa are jammed, can't go anywhere even if they wanted to. Gas stations sold out of gas, stores sold out of bread and water. They are all trimming their trees and shit today and tomorrow.

InTenSity wrote:

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:It's lookin bad y'all. Just checking out the models. My coworkers in Tampa are battening down the hatches. Stay safe Miami and InTen. Please keep us updated.

Just got off the phone with a buddy who works for the county. County will be in Alpha Bravo in the morning. Highest alert. He thinks they are bringing in cots and going to have to be there the whole time. He said he doesn't think its a good idea to go to Naples or Bradenton as the storm is large enough that they will probably have hurricane force winds and start evacuating anything west of 41 soon. He thinks the best bet is to stay here, or Montana.

If the current track holds, I'll be heading West across Alligator Alley sometime tomorrow evening or early Saturday. The Hurricane force winds do not extend very far from the center.

Having said that, I think the track is going to drift east & the eye will remain offshore & I won't need to go anywhere.

Heat Miser wrote:

InTenSity wrote:
Just got off the phone with a buddy who works for the county. County will be in Alpha Bravo in the morning. Highest alert. He thinks they are bringing in cots and going to have to be there the whole time. He said he doesn't think its a good idea to go to Naples or Bradenton as the storm is large enough that they will probably have hurricane force winds and start evacuating anything west of 41 soon. He thinks the best bet is to stay here, or Montana.

If the current track holds, I'll be heading West across Alligator Alley sometime tomorrow evening or early Saturday. The Hurricane force winds do not extend very far from the center.

Having said that, I think the track is going to drift east & the eye will remain offshore & I won't need to go anywhere.

Yeah, I think the last I saw was that hurricane force winds extend 50-60 miles from the center. If it stays off shore and we get "only" Cat 1 level winds, I'll be relieved.

My concern about going West, is that a little jog could put the West coast in the path. I have to cancel hotels by tomorrow. They aren't in evac areas, so they should stay open. But it's more likely than not I'll ride it out at home, shuttered up, but with a plan to dive into the bathroom (no exterior walls) in the unlikely event that it all goes to shit.

MiamiSpartan wrote:

Heat Miser wrote:

InTenSity wrote:
Just got off the phone with a buddy who works for the county. County will be in Alpha Bravo in the morning. Highest alert. He thinks they are bringing in cots and going to have to be there the whole time. He said he doesn't think its a good idea to go to Naples or Bradenton as the storm is large enough that they will probably have hurricane force winds and start evacuating anything west of 41 soon. He thinks the best bet is to stay here, or Montana.

If the current track holds, I'll be heading West across Alligator Alley sometime tomorrow evening or early Saturday. The Hurricane force winds do not extend very far from the center.

Having said that, I think the track is going to drift east & the eye will remain offshore & I won't need to go anywhere.

Yeah, I think the last I saw was that hurricane force winds extend 50-60 miles from the center. If it stays off shore and we get "only" Cat 1 level winds, I'll be relieved.

My concern about going West, is that a little jog could put the West coast in the path. I have to cancel hotels by tomorrow. They aren't in evac areas, so they should stay open. But it's more likely than not I'll ride it out at home, shuttered up, but with a plan to dive into the bathroom (no exterior walls) in the unlikely event that it all goes to shit.

My extended plan is to head north if necessary after heading west.

Praying for you guys, and all affected.

Cold front moving through Michigan right now, maybe it will help to push Irma out to sea. You can thank us later.

Hell, Key West is now outside the cone of death. Maybe I'll go down there.

Pretty cool of Royal Caribbean...

Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) is opening one of its majestic cruise ships to its employees Friday to help them escape Hurricane Irma, which is expected to make landfall in the U.S. this weekend.

The company’s ship Enchantment of the Seas was scheduled to sail on Friday for a weekend cruise to the Bahamas, but was canceled due to the storm so the company decided to offer it to its employees and their families who are in need of shelter.

“We felt that it was the right thing to do. It isn't really something we've advertised externally but I guess word has gotten out. The ship will depart from Port Miami tomorrow around noon and will sail out to blue skies and calm seas. It will return once the port reopens,” Cynthia Martinez, director of Corporate Reputation at Royal Caribbean told FOX Business.

The thousand-foot ship can handle close to 2,500 passengers and is expected to have “everyone from entry level employees to managers--to even the president of the company [on board],” an employee for the company told FOX Business. Employees, however, have not been told exactly where they will be going, only that they will be headed toward “calm waters.”


https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/royal-caribbean-opens-cruise-ship-191300488.html

Well this is not looking good.

Heat Miser wrote:Well this is not looking good.

Dibs on Miser's shit.

Heat Miser wrote:Well this is not looking good.

Get out man. By the way, is There a certain place you keep your hats?

Go buy a boat man. Just a little aluminum deal with a motor.

WhiteBoyHatcher wrote:Go buy a boat man. Just a little aluminum deal with a motor.

Buy a shrimp boat. Maybe yours will be the only one left.